Insights · run 1.0.0-draft.1 · 2026-08-05
What the index says, in aggregate
Employment- and wage-weighted headline metrics across 887 scored occupations covering 194.2M U.S. workers (BLS OEWS wages and employment). Pressure, not prophecy — see how to read this below.
Share of the U.S. wage bill under substitution pressure
32%
≈ $4.70T of $14.47T in annual median wages, substitution-score-weighted across occupations. This measures how much paid work sits in exposed tasks — not wages that will disappear.
Employment-weighted substitution
34
Average substitution score experienced by the typical U.S. worker (0–100).
Employment-weighted augmentation
55
The counterpoint: how much AI assists the typical worker's tasks without replacing them.
Workers in high-pressure occupations
5.3M
Employed in occupations with substitution ≥ 70 — 2.7% of covered employment.
Workers in high-augmentation occupations
47.8M
Employed in occupations with augmentation ≥ 70 — 24.6% of covered employment.
Highly exposed tasks
7.5%
Of 18,796 rated O*NET tasks, the share scoring ≥ 70 on substitution.
Average confidence-interval width
±6.7
Mean half-width of the substitution CI from rater disagreement — the index's own uncertainty, stated plainly.
Substitution × augmentation — every occupation
The core claim of the methodology in one picture: replacement and assistance are different axes. Each dot is one of 923 occupations; dot area reflects U.S. employment. Hover a dot for its name.
The shape of the index
Distribution of all 923 occupation substitution scores; the marker is the employment-weighted mean.
Pressure by wage decile
Employment-weighted mean substitution per median-wage decile — where on the pay scale the pressure sits.
By occupation group
Employment-weighted mean substitution per SOC major group.
Top 20 by substitution
full index →| # | Occupation | Substitution (CI) | Exposure | Augment. | Median wage | Employed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Word Processors and Typists | 89.2(86–92) | 89 | 67 | $49,280 | 35,010 |
| 2 | Travel Agents | 83.1(73–94) | 81 | 72 | $50,160 | 55,110 |
| 3 | Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 81.4(76–87) | 84 | 78 | $50,670 | 1,373,680 |
| 4 | Telemarketers | 80.8(76–86) | 80 | 68 | $35,450 | 58,430 |
| 5 | Order Clerks | 78.0(72–84) | 74 | 71 | $46,170 | 75,200 |
| 6 | Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks | 77.2(70–85) | 79 | 71 | $58,260 | 153,140 |
| 7 | Billing and Posting Clerks | 75.8(67–85) | 76 | 66 | $48,500 | 404,060 |
| 8 | Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks | 75.5(69–82) | 76 | 75 | $49,230 | 214,260 |
| 9 | Brokerage Clerks | 75.1(68–82) | 77 | 71 | $65,750 | 35,940 |
| 10 | Data Entry Keyers | 74.4(70–79) | 72 | 55 | $41,340 | 127,080 |
| 11 | Correspondence Clerks | 72.8(65–81) | 72 | 74 | $46,800 | 4,290 |
| 12 | Statistical Assistants | 71.6(66–78) | 70 | 78 | $50,330 | 4,710 |
| 13 | Online Merchants | 71.2(64–79) | 67 | 75 | $83,050 | 1,087,090 |
| 14 | Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 70.3(63–78) | 67 | 78 | $47,540 | 1,706,790 |
| 15 | Proofreaders and Copy Markers | 70.1(64–76) | 65 | 82 | $51,120 | 4,580 |
| 16 | Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service | 69.5(59–80) | 67 | 54 | $38,630 | 34,280 |
| 17 | Tellers | 68.5(60–77) | 70 | 63 | $43,030 | 329,480 |
| 18 | Loan Interviewers and Clerks | 68.5(60–77) | 70 | 76 | $50,020 | 164,790 |
| 19 | Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks | 68.0(62–74) | 68 | 66 | $50,080 | 12,030 |
| 20 | Receptionists and Information Clerks | 67.9(62–74) | 65 | 69 | $38,010 | 910,180 |
Most workers in high-pressure occupations
Substitution ≥ 60, ordered by U.S. employment.
- Customer Service Representatives2.6M workers64
- Office Clerks, General2.5M workers64
- Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive1.7M workers70
- Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks1.4M workers81
- Online Merchants1.1M workers71
- Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants961,610 workers64
Where the panel disagrees most
Widest confidence intervals — scores to hold loosely, and first in line for expert review.
How to read these numbers
"Wage bill under pressure" weights every occupation's wages by its substitution score — it measures where paid work overlaps with what AI can plausibly take over, not a payroll forecast. Realized effects so far are concentrated and cohort-specific, and augmentation-weighted usage still dominates. Metrics cover the 887 scored occupations with BLS wage and employment data; methodology and formulas are public on the methodology page.